Heywards defense and lack of power has the potential to confound, but stripping away the defense, we still see an incredibly valuable player with the potential to maintain or even improve his production. by Retrosheet. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is. Heaney then tossed a middle-middle fastball, hoping for an easy strike. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors This group also aged incredibly well. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Signup . "I've talked . Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Interestingly, although Heyward swung less frequently than in any season since his 2010 debut, he finished with a 10.3% walk rate thats below his career average and set a new personal low for pitches per plate appearance. Contract: 8 yr, $184M (2016-23) AAV: $23.0M. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. Hows it going to go? In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Dodgers Add Jason Heyward LA signs five-time Gold Glover to a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp via Bleacher Report Jason Heyward Cubs Moving On from Heyward Team. Consequently, his walk rate has dropped from 14.6 percent to 11.1 percent. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title: If youre keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. by Handedness, Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency, Effectively Wild Episode 761: An Offseason Friday Gallimaufry, The Best of FanGraphs: November 2-6, 2015. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. His rookie year was off-the-charts good Biggio knows right field well. Kiner-Falefa had a slash line of .261/.314/.327 . After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . His 2012 projections are strong The former Yankees and Rangers first baseman topped out at 97 mph from the left side and struck out the first batter he faced swinging on an offspeed pitch. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. With all this hype Im still trying to figure out why the Braves basically gave this guy away?? by Retrosheet. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. Last season, Oviedos fastball had five fewer inches of rise or more sink than four-seam fastballs at similar velocities. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. It happens. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. by Retrosheet. Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. Heywards 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. Its no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500. At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. It really had good numbers on the computer. He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. Quinn worked this winter with hitting consultant Ryan Sutterer, who analyzed Quinns body movements and helped him understand how he can repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis. The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10 All. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. Their average WAR is below. Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. Heyward is coming off his age-21 season, having just turned 22 this past August. fangraphs.com 1d. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. Time now for our annual spin through players whose luck in 2022 was worse (or better) than their fortune deserved. But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. As was the case with the offensive player-comps group, Heyward is more accomplished than almost all of the players on this list. I was just saying the other day that there hasnt been a free agent whos so valuable in this particular waya combination of very good performance and youthsince A-Rod in 2000. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. Advanced fielding statistics Ultimate Zone Rating (. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The team is confident in Jason Heyward. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. Heywards main drawback, perhaps only drawback, as a player seeking more than $100 million is his lack of power. For my ease, I took five-year averages for both WAR and the cost of a win when calculating the total. If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. . and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. The group as a whole averaged nearly four wins per season from age 26 through age 30, which would be a very good result for Jason Heyward. I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. by Handedness. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . Nov 6 2015 Extended a $15.8 million qualiying offer by St. Louis (STL) Nov 17 2014 Traded to St. Louis (STL) from Atlanta (ATL) with Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. Its not surprising. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? He went second to home on a single. Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. The coaches that were working with me were trying to get me to throw a sinker because sometimes my fastball sinks, Oviedo said. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. Taylor may also appear at third base in Cactus League games. Its easy to lose sight of Heywards age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Throw caution to the wind, even. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. Just like I wanted to see one in there. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Injuries happen and players decline unexpectedly. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The grounders are just about all pulled. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. 12 years and 0 . Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.